The four justices who aren't on this year's ballot.
Five of nine seats are up. The other four set the floor. Read these first; they're the votes that determine how big the swing actually is.
The votes already in the column.
These four sitting justices are not up for election in 2026. Their terms run past the next Culliton challenge. Whatever happens with the five ballot seats, these are the starting four votes.
The math of five seats.
The starting four off-ballot votes: McCloud (keep), and three votes leaning scrap (González, Whitener, Mungia). To overturn Culliton or to uphold ESSB 6346 as an excise, the scrap side needs five total, meaning at least two of the five ballot seats. To preserve Culliton and strike down 6346, the keep side needs five total, meaning at least four of the five ballot seats.
That's why this election is the leverage point. Same court, same precedent, same statute, but a swing of two seats either direction decides whether the 93-year-old wall holds or comes down.